AT Kearney's Global Retail Development Index 2012

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As per the current AT Kearney Global Retail Development Index (GRDI 2012) rating, India remains an attractive market for (modern) retail business for global retailers.

The rankings are dominated by Latin American countries like Brazil(has been on top of this list for 2 consecutive years now), Chile(2nd), Urugway(4th) & Peru(10th). This can be largely attributed to better political stability and a steady economic growth the region is experiencing.

 

GRDI ranking 2012GRDI ranking 2012

The Rating is based on an Index which gives equal (25%) weightage to the following parameters:

  1. Market Attractiveness: Based on retail sales per capita, Population, Urban Population and Business efficiency(government efficiency, regulations, Infrastructure, ease of doing business etc)
  2. Country & Business risk: Political risk, debt indicators, credit ratings & access to bank financing
  3. Market Saturation: Share of modern retail to total retail, number of International retailers operating in the country, Modern retail sales area per urban inhabitant, Market share leading retailers(high score for fragmented markets while low score for highly concentrated markets)
  4. Time Pressure: Growth rate of modern retail weighted by GDP growth (& also growth of area under modern retail vs traditional retail). This factor gives an indication of relative attractiveness of investing in modern retail.

Here are the top countries from the list that have dominated the ranking in last few years:

GRDI ranks over the yearGRDI ranks over the year

* In 2012 Georgia was ranked 6th & Oman, Mangolia & Peru were ranked from 8th to 10th(Not shown in above picture)

While India has managed to remain in the top league, its rank has come down over the last few years. Not only other countries have got higher points, India’s points in this Index have come down (From 68 in 2009 to 61 in 2012).

GRDI India ranking points over the yearsGRDI India ranking points over the years

 

As the data to arrive at these ratings is driven by statistics, there is a scope of understanding & test the same from an intuitive point of view. Following are our observations:

-          Market Attractiveness for India has come off the highest score(100), while India should have improved its score on all of the parameters, it has lost points due to relative ranking(with Brazil getting 100 points, pushing India down)

-          In Country risk, India has surprisingly got higher points than last year. Perhaps the Arab spring and a prolonged global slowdown would have punished other countries more than our own internal decline(S&P lowering India’s rating to Negative BBB in Aug’12).

-          Market Saturation: Now, this is interesting, India’s points have come down from 86 in 2009 to 56 in 2012. It is difficult to fathom any ground level reason for the same. Modern retail’s share has not grown much, market is still more or less equally fragmented, and we have not seen much action from international players either(with Wal-Mart, TESCO still sitting on fence)

One possible explanation is that most of the international companies have a presence in India on paper now (compared to 2009), mainly in a notional way in the B2B/wholesale segment. This will trick the ranking, but in real sense the market is far from being saturated.

You can read the full report here: http://www.atkearney.com/consumer-products-retail/global-retail-development-index

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Retail Rise | tracking the Indian retail revolution

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